Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
